September 1, 2011
Colombia
Rebel groups have continued their attacks on military and police personnel in peripheral regions of the country, with at least 10 policeman killed in recent days; five were ambushed on patrol in Narino, southern Colombia, whilst another five were shot in Loma de Gonzalez between Cesar and Norte de Santander provinces. In addition, four young men were shot dead whilst playing football in the city of Cali. The uptick in violence around the country, however, is unlikely to spread to the main cities on any significant scale in the near future.
Iran
Iran’s Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanei stated on 30 August that parliamentary elections currently scheduled for March 2012 pose a significant risk to the country’s security. In 2009, following the contested re-election of President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, huge protests were crushed by security forces, while similar demonstrations in response to the Arab Spring were also brutally suppressed. Latent resentment at the government blatant suppression of free speech has the potential to cause major instability in the country in the run-up to the elections, and any show of dissent, most likely in the capital Tehran, will be met with a harsh response from security forces.
Libya
Mustafa Abdel Jalil, who leads the rebel National Transitional Council (NTC), stated on 30 August that he would give Gaddafi loyalist forces in Sirte until 3 September to surrender before he orders rebel fighters to storm the city. Many troops loyal to the former regime have fled to Sirte, Colonel Gaddafi’s hometown, which has become the last bastion of loyalist forces. NTC and NATO officials have raised concerns that Gaddafi supporters may begin to commit atrocities against supporters of the rebels in the city, and NATO officials have indicated their main focus is to prevent a bloody battle for control of the town.
Russia
At least eight people were killed by suicide attacks in the Chechen capital of Grozhny on 30 August, which came during celebrations to mark the end of Ramadan. The first suicide bomber reportedly struck when police tried to detain him in the vicinity of a local parliamentary building, and a second occurred some minutes later as emergency services gathered; there were also unconfirmed reports of a third explosion. The casualties are said to include six policemen, who are often the target of attacks by militants in the North Caucasus republics.
South Africa
Police fired stun grenades to disperse supporters of Julius Malema in central Johannesburg on 30 August. Crowds gathered outside the ANC headquarters at Luthili house as Malema, the president of the ANC Youth League, faced a disciplinary hearing after calling for Botswana’s government to be overthrown. One police officer and several journalists were reportedly injured in the clashes. Should Malema be expelled from the ANC, there is the potential for further protests.
Yemen
Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh has stated he is committed to holding elections for a new President and that the vote should be held as soon as possible. Saleh issued the statement from Saudi Arabia, where he continues to recover from an assassination attempt in June. He also reiterated that the current regime was co-operating with initiatives put forward by the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC) as well as the UN Security Council in order that “free and direct elections be held” in the near future. The statement is unlikely to appease anti-government demonstrators who believe the regime is attempting to maintain ultimate power within its inner circle. Political instability will endure in the country, even if elections are held, given the large degree of mistrust among the opposition as well as its largely heterogeneous nature that will result in growing splits and political jostling if Saleh departs.
